Electricity

Overview

JD Energy's Electricity Practice gew out of its early roots in forecasting coal markets.  With the electricity sector comprising more than 90 percent of the US coal demand, it was important that JD Energy possess a model fully capturing the regional interplay of electricity demand, inter-fuel competition for generation, and environmental requirements in this sector.  In the mid-1990s, JD Energy expanded its offering to include comprehensive electricity forecasting services.  Today, more than 80 percent of our clients subscribe to our full set of Electricity publications.

In our Electricity publications, we forecast regional electricity sales, generation, and capacity by energy type, fuel consumption, and emissions for four pollutants.

What Distinguishes Our Electricity Practice

Our Expertise

• JD Energy has been furnishing fully integrated regional electricity forecasts since 1994.
• Our fuel experts give insight into both generation technology and pricing trends for the various energy sources.
• Pollution control and emissions price forecasting experts adjust generation requirements to meet environmental standards.
• Invaluable inputs into our electricity forecasting effort are provided by our various JD Energy Practices, including Coal & Petcoke, Environment & Emissions, Nuclear Power & Uranium, and Renewables.
• Natural gas and oil expertise is provided through joint ventures with external firms.

Our Approach

JD Energy operates a series of integrated models collectivity referred to as GEMS--the Generation-Electricity/Emissions Modeling System.  GEMS is designed to address a broad array of electric generating, fuel, and environmental issues in a context that concurrently considers all of these elements when evaluating very specific potential changes to individual variables.

• GEMS considers the impact of changes to a wide variety of variables including (but not limited to) macroeconomic and financial assumptions, electricity demand, generation technology cost and performance changes, policy initiatives, environmental standards and pollution control technologies, regional fuel cost assumptions, emission allowance prices, transmission improvements or contraints, etc.
• The models compute individual segments of the energy production and electricity generation sectors and then continually iterates among these segments to produce an internally consistent outcome.
• The models can forecast or accommodate hard-wired changes to specific coal and nuclear generating units.

In recognition of the significant uncertainty in energy markets, JD Energy evaluates probabilistic alternative cases in all of its analyses, thereby providing the user with a carefully considered bandwidth of outcomes for purposes of contingency planning and risk assessment.

Our Publications

• Electricity Generation and Price Forecasts
  • Multi-scenario long-term forecasts are made twice each year
  • 12 regional forecasts provided
  • Major drivers behind forecast explained in a 15 page reports plus regional tables
  • Forecasts cover electricity demand, generation, and capacity by fuel type, fuel use, and pollutant emissions
• Regional Electricity Projections (REPs)
  • In-depth reports prepared for each region
  • Provides detailed assessment of demand, generation, fuel use, emissions, and state policies on a sub-regional basis
  • Highly detailed plant-specific reports provided for each coal and nuclear unit within a region
  • Detailed spreadsheets identify unit-specific dispatch for coal and nuclear units in long-term forecast
• Coal in the Electric Power Industry
  • Plant-by-plant reports on coal-fired power generation across all electricity regions
  • Forecasts plant coal purchases by coal type and pollution control equipment
  • Narrative covers topics including capacity, plant procurement activity, transportation options, and clean air strategy
• Nuclear Power Outlook
  • Forecasts annual unit-by-unit generation out of 20+ year
  • Issued annually
  • Narrative discusses key issues affecting nuclear power

JD Energy Electricity Practice publications are available for individual purchase or as part of a larger subscription.  Please Contact Us to learn more.