Coal & Petcoke Practice

Overview

The Coal & Petcoke Practice is the heart of JD Energy. Several members of JD Energy's Coal Practice leadership have more than 30 years' experience forecasting coal markets, and JD Energy has collectively served most of the major electric power companies and top coal producers on coal-related issues.

We forecast both short-term and long-range coal and petcoke market trends, using a multi-disciplinary approach that encompasses the view of our market economists, mining/ combustion/ environmental engineers, energy economists, transportation analysts and research specialists.

What Distinguishes Our Coal & Petcoke Practice

JD Energy's Coal & Petcoke Practice is distinguished by a combination of our far-reaching industry expertise and our rigorous forecasting approach.

Our Expertise

• Strong insight into the economics of coal and petcoke pricing dynamics.
• Considerable mining engineering experience in both eastern and western US coal regions as well as in international mine operations.
• Widely-acknowledged proficiency in both the technical and policy issues associated with the combustion and environmental aspects of burning coal and petcoke.
• More than 30 years of addressing the economics of petroleum coke production and use.

Our Approach

JD Energy's coal and petcoke outlooks interpret a broad range of factors through flexible models that enable easy scenario forecasts. Among other supply/demand drivers, our region-level forecasts account for:

• Inter-fuel demand, including the impact of the changing price and production profiles for other fuel sources (e.g., natural gas).
• Coal quality mix, showing changes to supply across multiple producing regions and different coal types within each region.
• Mining productivity, separately projected for each coal type in each mining region, including consideration of factors such as reserve quality and quantity, seam thickness and overburden ratios, conductiveness to various types of mining equipment, labor force maturity, environmental sensitivity, regulatory requirements, etc.
• Mining cost imputs, incorporating the volatile prices for such items as mine machinery, diesel fuel, explosives, labor, leasing, etc.
• Petcoke output and market drivers, including refinery operating levels, delayed coker installations, demand changes for different petroleum products, increased ability of electric sector usage due to FGD retrofits, macroeconomic effects on key industrial users (e.g., cement).

We extensively cover both the immediate short-term markets and also give in-depth assessments of the various long-term forces at play that will affect each coal's competitiveness decades from now.
In addition, in recognition of the significant uncertainty in energy markets, JD Energy evaluates probabilistic alternative cases in all of its anaylses, thereby providing the user with a carefully considered bandwith of outcomes for purposes of contingency planning and risk assessment.

Our Publications

• Coal Monthly
  • Monthly forecast of 18 key spot coal and petcoke prices
  • Includes 6-page narrative analysis of major market drives, including demand and production, stocks, export/imports, and the "petcoke picture"
  • Forecasts prices on a monthly basis out 24-36 months
• Quarterly Coal Forecast
  • Quarterly long-term price forecast covering 8 major coal producing regions and 2 petcoke areas, examining multiple coal/petcoke types within those regions
  • 10-15 page forecast narrative focuses on market price outlook for contract and spot markets over 25-year horizon
  • Forecasts include Base Case, High Price Case, Low Price Case, and "Business As Usual" Case
• Coal & Petcoke Price Analysis Reports
  • Detailed, individual coal and petcoke region-specific reports
  • Issued annually
  • Covers both US and international coal producing regions (see complete region list below)
  • Forecast includes a Base, High, and Low Price Case for each coal/petcoke type
  • Also covers several market prices for each coal (including Spot, Annual Contract, and 3-year Contract prices)
  • Coal Regions covered include:
    • Northern Appalachia
    • Central Appalachia
    • Southern Appalachia
    • Ohio
    • Illinois Basin
    • Powder River Basin
    • Western Bituminous (Green River/Hams Fork/Hanna/Uinta)
    • San Juan/Raton Basin
    • Lignite (Gulf and Northern)
    • Colombia
    • Venezuela
    • Indonesia
    • South Africa
    • Australia
    • Poland
    • Canada
  • Petroleum Coke Regions covered include:
    • Gulf
    • West Coal
• Coal Transportation Reports
  • Modes covered include:
    • Rail
    • Barge
    • Truck
    • Ocean Vessel
  • Quarterly short-term and long-range forecasts
  • Forecasts cover general indices (e.g., RCAF) as well as origin-to-destination shipments
• Contract Escalators
  • Annual publication with quarterly updates on current contracting trends
  • Forecasts most commonly-used escalators (e.g., Implicit Price Deflator, Consumer Price Index, various PPI indices, RCAF series).

JD Energy Coal and Petcoke Practice publications are available for individual purchase or as part of a larger subscription.  Please Contact Us to learn more.